October 17, Huachuan County of Heilongjiang Province, in front of the library in the grain storage huachuan close to one white and one red two “signs” White rice is the suspension of the notice of red paper that read: large hospital acquisition soybean cash and 1.84 yuan per jin, moisture 13.5%.

Two Huachuan County’s soybean farmers read over the red paper, saying, “They card too hard, and not as a hawker.” Touyemeihui then speeding away in a motorcycle.

Granary of a staff member told the “China Times” reporter, notices were posted and has been no one to send food, the huge granary in empty.

“(Huachuan library) can store more than ten million tons of grain, but now almost all gone, non-collection of soybean, rice is the rotation has taken some time ago, and now have stopped, because the state purchasing and storage of this year’s price has not down, so the suspension of the. “library in the Grain huachuan deputy Ren Hanwei told this newspaper.

New grain prices have been listed on the purchase price of last year’s State Reserve left far behind. This reporter went to the first big barn survey in Heilongjiang province, where rice prices have been rushed to 1.40 mark, “almost caught up with the price of rice a year.” The province accounts for half of the soybean production, prices rose less than a month almost catty to 0.20 yuan, or more than a round of rice has soared.

Rice, corn, soybeans and other bulk agricultural products (21.78, -0.27, -1.22%), without exception, were in the harvest season from the processing enterprises, traders loot, hot money is also fueled speculation farmers, the broker “ the number of how many “suffered food at the same time, FAO is more expensive and you want to” cover their food reluctant sellers. ”

Both the supply and marketing sides, or industry experts, are very understanding and consistently optimistic about the future direction of prices of agricultural products.They all believe that rising demand for agricultural products and power still exists, there is still no small rise in agricultural space. Interview three of the South China Institute of Deputy General Manager Li Honglei futures forecast gains likely to continue until next April. The person in charge of paying Shimi-related, not without fear, said: “I am afraid to rise to the ceiling prices go up.”

It is like the Agricultural Bank of China (2.81, -0.03, -1.06%), the High Commissioner for head office, as envisaged in HO Chi Shing, if the Chinese farmers know that the international food prices skyrocketing, they will try to avoid cheap sell corn. In addition, many enterprises to participate in rush in the harvest of agricultural products, while reluctant to sell, one rush in the harvest, if the speculators rushed into the room, the situation may get out of control food prices.

The more serious consequence is that food prices will inevitably lead to inflation expectations get out of control out of control. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Li Guoxiang Rural Development Institute found that prices of staple agricultural products and food prices generally have been volatile, such as oil from soybeans to, from corn to pork, the corresponding end product prices will be inevitable.

Hard-driving food prices

Compared with the grain depots doors to cold, a pioneer crop production cooperatives Huachuan County deputy director of Han Junde was too busy. This reporter saw Han Junde October 17, he was busy buying rice merchants.

“Jilin’s merchants to buy sticky rice two days, an opening is an eight-pound, which the price of rice than fifty cents higher than the money, and last year this time, but ninety much money.” Han Junde told reporters.

The price of rice this year out of the wave “, opening to go,” the market, September 10 just one enjoys a new rice processing enterprises that were local and foreign businessmen and looting, the purchase price was bid up to 1.28 yuan per catty, and then soon break through 1.30, the current price in the range of 1.33 to 1.35 yuan, and some high-quality rice and even rushed the 1.40 mark.

Rice was originally the name of the wishful thinking of the price correction processing enterprises, and now also take it anymore. ”We had planned to Chen last year, while processing of rice, while observing the new rice prices fall, but the rice is now almost finished processing, the new price of rice has gone up but not only did not fall a lot, and then carried down enterprises are discontinued. ”Oct. 18 that day, Heilongjiang Province, Hao Wei, Zhang Guangyun rice trade sales manager had to send troops to the fields all the way to buy rice.

Rally in soybean prices comparable to rice. Although the time of soybean harvest 20 days later than the rice, but less than two weeks after the listing, the price of soybeans soaring nearly 0.20 per kilogram, or more than the rice.

October 19, Liu Baolin, general manager of Harbin Industry University refineries interviewed said that the current soybean processing costs increased more than two weeks ago, 400 yuan per ton, mainly because of the rising price of soybean, this month soybean price is about 1.72 yuan per catty, and now has risen to 1.91 yuan.

Earlier in more, that is, before the domestic soybean market, China’s soybean imports since July this year the average price has been rising for three consecutive months. General Administration of Customs recently released data show that in September China’s soybean imports 4.64 million tons, worth $ 2,086,500,000, the average import price $ 449.7 / ton, and July of this year’s $ 422.4 / ton increase compared to 5.3%.

Research has just come back from soybean producing areas of language noted Wang, Heilongjiang new listings all over the general rise in soybean prices, or nearly a month with the price increase soybean imports equivalent to one month before the price of soybean imports to Hong Kong, or 1.80 yuan or so, now rose more than 2 million, and is poised to rise.

“Now, farmers, businesses, merchants are fairly consistently optimistic and generally agree that prices will rise sharply, a large number of large number of agents active in the village yo, as long as all suffered on the sale of beans, some local traders hoarding has emerged the phenomenon of gambling goods prices. “hometown living in Keshan soybean Soybean Association President Chen Yangui Qiqihar told our reporter.

High but difficult to

Language appears in Wang, China’s high dependence on foreign soybean, 70% of the soybean is imported, domestic soybean no pricing power, so the prices of imported soybeans is bound to boost domestic soybean prices continue to rise. In addition, the main producing areas of domestic soybean, soybean unusual competition fierce battle is being staged this piece of black soil, which is to promote soybean prices soared to another important factor.

“Large and small processing enterprises have started, the field of the merchants and local brokers have joined the Qiangliang war, various military forces killing, looting of soybean prices climbing higher and higher.” Huachuan County Oil Co., Ltd. Tai Fung vegetable oil The director of Zou Hongwu witnessing the things I see.

It is a large oil refinery workers fought all the way in which soldiers and horses, they are equipped in Heilongjiang province, the three collection stations, refineries back every day to 400 tons of soybeans, but for daily processing capacity of 500 tons of yard, which is only just to meet their normal operation. General Manager Liu Baolin admitted that “oil refinery regarded raise prices to 1.91 per pound, can people still do not want to sell.”

All day and live the Heihe City, soy autumn soybean cooperatives can best understand the people He Shuwen president “reluctant sellers cover their beans,” the mood. He told reporters this year, corn, wheat, rice and other agricultural prices turns up, this time also the turn of native soybean, and soybean farmers are generally considered the beginning of price increases, “certainly this year’s national soybean prices higher than last year purchasing and storage ”The message can be heard everywhere, the big move seems imminent.

After a rally after the corn and rice farmers are still optimistic and prices. October 17 at noon, birch Huachuan County village is a large grain of rice out of the sun. He told this reporter that they yield a good harvest this year, he has all the rice harvest coming up, but most are not sold, he believes prices will rise.

Weather in the Northeast in advance into the winter. An agricultural expert, told reporters in the northeastern region of rice had been received before the onset of frost is over, even if the sudden cold weather is not afraid of the future, but is conducive to rice drying and reduce moisture. This advantage is clearly strong support for the farmers and traders continue to “stockpile bet price.”

Shimi paid when the property industry is more than 10 million tons in one of the few, however, this large-scale rice processing enterprises have already cut more than 3 months. October 18, this reporter came to pay Shimi industry, the huge factory empty.According to company insiders, the reason to pay Shimi industry is not discontinued due to grain resources.

Inflation Worries

Optimistic about the future trend of prices of agricultural products, not only production and marketing sides, and even interviewed a number of experts and the industry is widely acknowledged that prices of agricultural products is still not a small space.

The current round of price hikes prices of agricultural products is closely related to international factors. This year, because of the continuing hot and dry weather, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Germany, Australia and many parts of the world’s major grain-producing areas suffer from drought, causing food crops particularly wheat crop production is declining dramatically. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Li Guoxiang that the Rural Development Institute, difficult to change the status of global agricultural production cuts.

This led directly to the year 2010 to 2011 global food supply and demand reversed.Data show that from 2009 to 2010 food production 30 million tons more than demand, oversupply, and this year is expected to be 4,000 tons of gap. Medium-term Futures Research Institute Beijing, said Wang Jun, from the perspective of supply and demand side, rising demand for agricultural products remains.

Nanhua Futures Institute analyzed three deputy general manager Li Honglei said ample liquidity the market needs to find investment targets, while the choice of channels and not a lot of depression in the relative value of agricultural products has become the favored target.

“China’s grain price has been lower than international prices, have long been suppressed, has accumulated a huge market prices of energy, with the trend of excess liquidity at home and abroad, for some time and even the sustainability of rising food prices rose almost certainly a retaliatory The. “Agricultural Bank of China, HO Chi Shing High Commissioner that, but led to his concern that this may lead to runaway inflation expectations, driving more product turns up.

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October 19, the central bank decided to raise interest rates, intended to warn of inflation expectations. HO Chi Shing appears in the second half of 2010 inflation expectations start rising food prices is a direct factor, while the complex factors behind rising food prices, both objective and need, but also speculation composition, entering the fourth quarter, and speculation components may be further exacerbated.”The situation may get out of control food prices.” HO Chi Shing said.