China’s state administration of foreign exchange Thursday (July
issued foreign exchange management policy on its website (4) hot q&a, points out the concern that the RMB appreciation expectation affected by European debt crisis.
Safe said, by domestic factors, the RMB appreciation is abate, us dollar interest rates rise, arbitrage momentum. On one hand, the market of Europe, fears of debt crisis of international foreign exchange market turmoil, funds to buy dollars of assets, the dollar index rose once hedge since March 2009, and high forward markets fell sharply RMB appreciation.
On the other hand, as investors, the us dollar interest rates increased hedge emotions continued to climb. In late June 5 international market interest rates than usd interbank lending rose in late April treatment percentage points. At the same time, domestic Banks in the prophase of the overseas assets, continue to the overseas assets for domestic foreign exchange loan distributing of limited space, foreign exchange bank liquidity.
Safe until 2010 4 months, Chinese foreign exchange inflows overall lasted until 2009 second quarter rebounded since April, 2008 r epresents surplus size is the focus of international financial crisis since the outbreak of the peak. But since may enter net foreign pressure eased. 5 month bank valet than April r epresents surplus size decreased dramatically, including guest settlement 56 percent decline 11% compared to handle 13% annulus.
However, to promote the international bureau said the arduous task of balance. On one hand, the dollar cross-border arbitrage, either in China continue to exist and are spread there must be RMB appreciation, under the condition of enterprise and individual foreign currency assets, liabilities have further expand trend, to prevent abnormal cross-border capital inflows greater pressure.
On the other hand, if the dollar exchange rate and continued strong international capital outflows may cause, The international financial crisis of a financial asset to completely eliminate not poisonous, some European countries are in debt crisis of the sovereignty over, do not eliminate some emergent events triggered unrest caused by market confidence, cross-border capital.
