In July, along with China’s entering the slowing economy, the initial momentum for future price movements and the change of the judgment, and more inclined to think that China will gradually reduce inflationary pressures. Mostly, though year-on-year increase in June CPI slightly more than the last may, but from the annulus 3.1%, probably for the second straight month slowdown.
Food prices are driven back negative annulus
In June, the consumer price index (CPI) increase year-on-year, have issued a report of 6 estimates for forecasting, mostly to 3.3% 3.2%. Although still higher food prices, but due to the last drop in June, annulus CPI growth is slowing.
Societe generale, a veteran economist, because lu zhengwei non-food annulus is likely to negative, June food prices will fall annulus annulus CPI. Basic decision
He told the newspaper reporters economic reference, the national bureau of statistics said 50 cities is the main food ten-days degrees price change data shows, June food CPI annulus with 5 months could drop a seasonal vegetables because of listing, June, vegetable prices continue to drop considerably in the middle. On the other hand, the 4th batch by storage start-up and dragon-boat festival holiday in mid-june, pork prices, but the rally rebound reason.
The data shows, the degree of weeks before June 3 weeks, vegetables, fruits, poultry prices are higher than the amplitude, may rise less than five months, bread and meat, eggs, aquatic product prices higher than last month. Therefore, the data from ministries, June 5 months compared with food CPI, compared to go up or down not good judgment. But from the historical data, 2007, in June 2008, CPI food annulus below 5 months, and in June 2007, food are negative annulus CPI. The above information is comprehensive, June food C PI annulus in 1-0-6-9, median – between 1.3%, above 5 months may decline.
In addition, since 1995, except there since the historical data, June 2008 non-food CPI annulus are negative, and in 2008, 2009, June non-food annulus below 5 months. And from non-food index of seasonal change, June is often entertainment education culture articles and services, family equipment supplies and maintenance services, tobacco, transportation, telecommunication, the five is a decline in the annulus. Accordingly, on June non-food annulus is in between, 0.2% – to 0.0% median – 0.1%.
“According to the above food and non-food price information, we expect, June CPI annulus in – 0.3% to 0.6 – between, median – 0.4%. But because of this month QiaoWei compared with significant uplink 0.5 percent year-on-year to 3.4% : 3.0% into the interval, median 3.2%, small uplink month 0.1 of a percentage point. Lu zhengwei said.
The master data from journalists, industrial securities and huatai securities joint of June year-on-year growth forecast C PI, are the same with lu zhengwei for 3.2%, HeGuoXin into silver international securities forecast for 3.3 percent, Traffic bank forecast slightly tall, to 3.5%.
Reduce pressure rise further
“We expect further price rises the second little pressure.” Traffic bank finance research center, senior analyst TangJianWei told the macro economic reference news reporter, “if no special circumstances, China will be in June, CPI reached after years in July, the second half began to drop will significantly reduce inflationary pressures, CPI increase 3% target is possible.”
He is a four reasons: because by the European debt crisis and real estate of China, the second half of the macro-control effect of domestic economic growth will flatten and demand of domestic prices dropped to relieve pressure. 2 is the recent restart the RMB exchange rate regime reform of RMB exchange rate, short of appreciation in certain degree can also reduce input under the pressure of inflation. Three is 2010 China’s trade surplus continued narrow will become a kind of trend, it may also reduce for foreign exchange in liquidity increased prices rise to cause stress. Finally, the domestic asset prices rose significantly slowing, recent rising asset prices to push prices also will weaken.
Following securities macro-economic analyst ZhouBingLin also said: “inflation fatigue”. He said despite the CPI, June for inertial slightly higher, but the market touch not inflationary expectations. From the data, the 10-year us Treasury yields below 3%, China 10 years, bond yields also reported by the end of June 3, 28% in April 20 points, down about 40 year, plus drop China federation of logistics &purchasing announced in June of Chinese manufacturing industry in the purchasing manager index, purchase price index dropped 7. Last six percentage points, the economy’s expectations of future inflation basic.
